An election result with quite a few surprises: for now, PVV and D66 seem to both have won 26 seats, CDA is sharply on the rise, and GroenLinks-PvdA has lost once again. Three political experts from Radboud University shed their light on these results.

‘I think Wilders has been relegated to the opposition benches’

Koen Vossen, lecturer in Empirical Political Science, published a book on Geert Wilders: ‘What is striking is that the trend is continuing whereby the Netherlands no longer has any really big parties. The two largest parties, D66 and PVV, both have less than 17% of the seats. That is really a very small percentage for the largest party. And GroenLinks-PvdA, CDA and VVD are also hovering around 15%.’

‘Forming a coalition will therefore be a difficult puzzle. Of those five parties, at least four will really have to work together. Because even the option with D66, CDA, VVD and JA21 will not achieve a majority with 75 seats. And that is leaving aside the question of how stable JA21 is as a party in the first place. Either way, you will need an extra party. And the more parties, the more unstable the coalition.’

‘A minority coalition with tacit support from an additional party could work. Or a coalition backed on elements. So a minority government of D66, CDA and VVD working with JA21 on migration, for example, but with GroenLinks-PvdA on climate. But it will require improvisation no matter what.’

‘I think the odds of a right-wing coalition involving PVV are very small either way. If CDA and VVD decide to collaborate with Wilders, it will really be a kind of voter betrayal. And D66 with PVV is a very unlikely combination.’

‘Wilders may have lost, but don’t forget that he has a loyal following’

‘I am not surprised by PVV’s loss. Of course, they achieved amazing results in the last election, with 37 seats. Many of those seats came through at the last minute. So this was not their regular constituency. Those voters have lost interest since then, because PVV did not deliver enough or because they are being excluded by other parties.’

‘Wilders may have lost, but don’t forget that he has a loyal following. Even with a less successful campaign, he can still count on around 15% of the votes. Those people are voting for him to send a message. And every time Wilders is attacked or excluded, they are strengthened in their choice. In terms of name recognition, Wilders is doing well.’

‘I do think Wilders has been relegated to the opposition benches for the foreseeable future. But he has been written off before, and has come back strong again. Just yesterday, he said he would continue until he is 80 years old.’

‘It is striking that the left cannot offer an alternative to this right-wing wind’

Anne Bos, political historian, affiliated with the Centre for Parliamentary History: ‘The final seat distribution will probably remain unclear for a few more days. A few decades ago, an extra seat would not have mattered much to the larger parties. In the 1980s, there were still results in which CDA with party leader Ruud Lubbers won 54 seats, and the PvdA under Joop den Uyl and Wim Kok have also been known to win 52 seats.’

‘With the current results, it seems logical to form a broad middle cabinet. If JA21 gains another seat, it could turn into a right-wing coalition. Although such a cabinet would by no means have a majority in the Senate.’

‘The radical right has not shrunk. PVV may have lost seats, but FvD and JA21 have grown. Within VVD, you also see a shift in that direction. The Netherlands is joining the European trend in which the radical right is growing. It is striking to see that the left cannot actually offer an alternative to this right-wing wind. Not even with a fusion party, apparently.’

‘The adage ‘to govern is to share’ has often applied to D66’

‘If you look at the past, you can conclude that the Netherlands tends towards the centre-right. Even the Den Uyl cabinet (1973-1977), known as the most left-wing cabinet ever – was tolerated by the right and did not have a left-wing majority.’

‘The fact that NSC went from 20 seats and government participation to zero seats in such a short time is a really unique feature of these elections. We did see very big losses before, think of PvdA losing a whopping 29 seats in 2017, or LPF going from 26 to 8 seats in 2003. But a party being completely wiped out, that is unprecedented.’

‘The fact that Frans Timmermans resigned immediately after these results is not unique, on the other hand. We saw this earlier with his party colleague Ad Melkert, who resigned in 2002 – the year Pim Fortuyn was assassinated – after losing half his seats. CDA leader Jan-Peter Balkenende also quit as party leader in 2010, right after losing 20 seats.’

‘I think the rapid rise of D66 can be explained by the strong and positive campaign they ran with a clear face. Rob Jetten did very well in that respect. The past does show that the adage ‘to govern is to share’ has often applied to D66.’

‘All coalition parties have consistently lost in the last elections. So participating in a cabinet does not always pay off electorally. The parties will take that knowledge with them in the coming period as they try to decide whether or not to step into government.’

‘I actually expected PVV to remain the largest party’

Andrej Zaslove, Associate Professor of Empirical Political Science, specialising in populism: ‘Although Rob Jetten was rising in the campaign, I am surprised that D66 has become so big. Jetten’s move towards the centre and his display of pragmatism and willingness to enter a coalition is interesting. D66 usually positions itself as more left-wing in the campaign phase – only to end up governing with VVD anyway. What strikes me is that Jetten did not get many votes from VVD voters; perhaps he got more support from GroenLinks-PvdA voters.’

‘Actually, I expected PVV to remain the largest party by far. Why didn’t that happen? The turnout does not seem to have been the problem, as it was even slightly higher than last time. Perhaps many voters chose another party, such as JA21 or VVD, because no one wants to govern with Wilders. The other interesting thing is the positive result for Forum voor Democratie. Appointing another party leader is the best decision Thierry Baudet has made in years.’

‘I am less surprised about VVD doing so well. People who are conservative and vote for VVD have a different mentality and ideology than conservative CDA voters. I suspect that after Henri Bontenbal’s statement about religious schools (Bontenbal said that religious education could be at odds with the fundamental right of equality, eds.), many people chose for VVD. And Dilan Yeşilgöz also did very well in the campaign. So CDA did not take away many votes from VVD, but mostly from NSC.’

‘It is a good result for democracy, though’

‘I think the less positive result of GroenLinks-PvdA shows that the cooperation between the two parties is not working well. Do they want to be progressive, or are they targeting the old, slightly more conservative Labour Party voters? Now they are trying to do both – and it is not working.’

‘The odds of Wilders ending up in a coalition are very slim. I think Jetten will succeed in forming a coalition. It will probably be a left-wing one, so with GroenLinks-PvdA instead of JA21, as well as with CDA and VVD. The key lies with VVD: Yeşilgöz still said during the campaign that she did not want to govern with the left. I suspect that GroenLinks-PvdA does want to be in the government, but the question is who will succeed Frans Timmermans and what impact that will have on how the party is perceived.’

‘The Netherlands was always right-wing and has become even more right-wing. I was surprised that, once again, the campaign was almost exclusively about immigration. But it is a good result for democracy, though. The new coalition will do better on that front than the previous one.’